The Reserve Bank held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in April 2026. Its statement set out competing risks: higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated, while weaker demand could limit the persistence of those pressures. The Committee did not promise a fixed path for the next decision.
If you have a mortgage coming up for refixing in the next six to twelve months, that tone matters more than the number itself.
What the rate curve was saying
The Reserve Bank noted that two year fixed mortgage rates had risen by around 20 basis points by its April review. Different fixed terms can therefore reflect different expectations about future wholesale rates and the OCR. The gap between a shorter and longer term is the price of choosing flexibility over certainty, not a reliable forecast on its own.
A small confession
I'll admit to a personal call here. A few months earlier I favoured a one year rate for some clients and that rate subsequently fell. I was early. The useful lesson is not that one term is always better. It is that the decision should match the borrower's tolerance for repayment changes, expected property plans and ability to absorb a different rate at the next refix.
Either way, this isn't a one-size answer. It's a conversation about your risk tolerance, your cashflow, and what else you might need the lending to do.
What we're actually telling clients
- Fixing in the next 3 months: compare the repayment and conditions across several terms rather than assuming the shortest offer is best.
- Investment property: don't ignore structure for the sake of 10bps. Tax treatment and serviceability still outweigh rate.
- Construction: lock your rate at approval, not at first drawdown — the window between the two is where we've seen people get caught.
— Fei, Homelend